Is India capable of stopping the Indus river and its tributaries from flowing into Pakistan? This question has arisen after India suspended a key treaty governing water sharing in the Indus basin following a recent attack in Indian-administered Kashmir. The 1960 Indus Waters Treaty has been a symbol of trans-boundary water management between the two countries, but tensions have escalated with India accusing Pakistan of supporting cross-border terrorism. Pakistan relies heavily on the water from the Indus basin for agriculture and hydropower, and disputes have arisen over India’s infrastructure projects that could potentially impact river flows. While India lacks the infrastructure to significantly control water flow, experts believe that it could modify existing structures to have a greater impact on Pakistan during the dry season. The treaty also requires India to share hydrological data with Pakistan for flood forecasting and planning, a crucial aspect that could be affected by India’s recent actions. The possibility of India weaponizing water against Pakistan, such as by releasing silt from its reservoirs without warning, is also a concern in the region. El repentino desbordamiento de este sedimento puede causar daños significativos aguas abajo.
Hay una imagen más grande: India está aguas abajo de China en la cuenca del Brahmaputra, y el Indo se origina en el Tíbet.
En 2016, después de que India advirtiera que “la sangre y el agua no pueden fluir juntas” tras un ataque militante en Cachemira administrado por la India, China bloqueó un afluente del Yarlung Tsangpo – que se convierte en el Brahmaputra en el noreste de la India – como parte de un proyecto hidroeléctrico.
Después de construir varias centrales hidroeléctricas en el Tíbet, China ha dado luz verde a lo que será la represa más grande del mundo en las secciones inferiores del Yarlung Tsangpo.
Pekín afirma un impacto ambiental mínimo, pero India teme que pueda dar a China un control significativo sobre el flujo del río.