Machias Seal Island is a small speck on North American maps, but its significance lies in its location in the “Grey Zone” – an area of disputed sovereignty between Canada and the United States. Both countries have long claimed the island and surrounding waters, where Maine meets New Brunswick, for the valuable lobster fishing rights.
Lobstermen from both nations engage in a dangerous scramble to set traps at the start of each summer season, often resulting in injuries and conflicts. The 277 square miles of sea around Machias Seal Island have been under dispute since the 1700s, with an international court ruling in 1984 allowing both countries to fish in the area.
Recent tensions between the US and Canada, including President Trump’s tariffs on Canadian imports and talk of potential annexation, have escalated the situation in the Grey Zone. Lobstermen from Cutler, Maine, face challenges in the disputed waters, with traps being stolen and accusations of unfair fishing practices on both sides.
The conflict has led to confrontations, threats of violence, and strained relations between border officials. Despite Canada’s efforts to maintain control, the situation remains volatile in the Grey Zone. The Americans cite the presence of US Marines who occupied the island during World War One as evidence of their sovereignty.
Border disputes
Despite ongoing border disputes, events in the Grey Zone did not seem to greatly affect the warmth between the US and Canada during Trump’s first presidency.
When Trump welcomed Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to the White House in 2017, he praised the relationship between the two nations, emphasizing the “special bonds” they share beyond just a border.
However, Trump’s rhetoric has since shifted significantly.
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Canada sends workers to maintain the lighthouse on Machias Seal Island as a sign of its sovereignty
In recent months, Trump has referred to Canada as the “51st state” of the US and the White House has shown readiness to escalate disputes along the US-Canada border.
For example, in September, the president expressed interest in Canadian water in British Columbia, suggesting it could be used to supply drought-stricken California: “You have millions of gallons of water pouring down from the north… they have essentially a very large faucet”.
Further east, tensions could arise over the Great Lakes, as US officials consider withdrawing from agreements on coordinated environmental regulation with Canada.
Even further east, a library straddling the Vermont-Quebec border has become a point of contention. The Haskell Free Library and Opera House, initially a symbol of cooperation between the two nations, now requires Canadians to go through immigration control before entering the building, citing concerns of drug trafficking.
Competition for natural resources
Natural resources are another source of conflict. Canada possesses abundant reserves of rare earth metals, gold, oil, coal, and lumber – resources that Trump values highly.
While Trump has denied any interest in Canada’s natural resources, in February, Trudeau reportedly suggested otherwise in a closed-door meeting with Canadian business and labour leaders.
According to Trudeau, the Trump administration is well aware of Canada’s resources and may be seeking to benefit from them, potentially explaining the talk of annexation. Jordan Heath-Rawlings, a Canadian journalist, believes Trump’s annexation remarks should be taken seriously.
“He likes the idea of acquiring a large land mass,” says Mr Heath-Rawlings. “He likely has his eyes on the Arctic, which is expected to become increasingly valuable in the future.”
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Canadians have started boycotting US products and cancelling trips there
Trump questions the legitimacy of the US-Canadian border itself, calling it an “artificial line” that makes no sense.
Trump’s comments have stirred unease among Canadian leaders, who warn of his intentions regarding their country.
Trudeau has accused Trump of plotting “a total collapse of the Canadian economy” to facilitate annexation.
The previous month, after Trump announced new tariffs on Canada, Trudeau remarked: “Trump envisions absorbing our country as one of the easiest ways to do so. It’s a real possibility.”
If US territorial ambitions in Canada are indeed real, it raises a perplexing question: Why would the US jeopardize its longstanding close ties with its northern neighbor?
Anomaly rather than the norm
Some observers see a pattern in Trump’s interest in Canada, Greenland, and the Panama Canal, suggesting a shift in how the US views its global role.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has articulated this shift, stating that the post-World War Two American dominance is more of an exception than the norm.
According to Michael Williams, a professor at the University of Ottawa, if the current US administration believes that American global dominance is no longer feasible or desirable, the US may retreat from distant conflicts and European commitments.
Instead, Prof Williams suggests that the US could focus on its “territorial core”, securing key geographic points, maximizing access to natural resources (like those in Canada), and reshoring industries when possible.
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Mark Carney recently stated that the long-standing relationship between Canada and the US is now over
This geopolitical strategy is not new. En la década de 1820, el presidente de los Estados Unidos, James Monroe, articuló un nuevo orden global en el que América y Europa se confinaban a sus propios hemisferios.
Pero sí representa un cambio notable en la política exterior de los Estados Unidos desde el final de la Segunda Guerra Mundial.
¿Un plan o un capricho?
El profesor Williams reconoce que es difícil descifrar exactamente lo que está pensando el presidente de los Estados Unidos, una opinión respaldada completamente por John Bolton, quien se desempeñó como asesor de seguridad nacional de Trump durante más de un año de su primer mandato presidencial.
“Trump no tiene filosofía”, dice. “Tiene ideas, pero no sigue un patrón coherente. No hay una estrategia subyacente.”
El presidente está actualmente obsesionado con minerales y recursos naturales, dijo, pero el Sr. Bolton argumenta que la mejor manera de hacerlo es a través del sector privado, no flotando la idea de anexar a un aliado. Canadá, por su parte, se ha ofrecido a trabajar con empresas estadounidenses en asociaciones mineras conjuntas.
El profesor Williams y el Sr. Bolton están de acuerdo en que cualesquiera que sean las motivaciones detrás de los planes de Trump sobre Canadá, el daño diplomático que se está haciendo será difícil de deshacer, y la posibilidad de consecuencias no anticipadas es alta.
Confianza rota
“A Trump le gusta decir en muchos contextos que otras personas no tienen cartas”, dice el profesor Williams. “Pero cuanto más empujas a la gente contra la pared, más puedes descubrir que tienen cartas que no sabías que tenían, y que podrían estar dispuestas a jugarlas. E incluso si tienes más cartas, las consecuencias de hacerlo pueden fácilmente salirse de control de formas realmente malas.”
Los canadienses ya han estado boicoteando productos estadounidenses y cancelando viajes de invierno al sur, lo que ha tenido un impacto en las comunidades turísticas de Florida.
“No estamos buscando pelea, pero Canadá está lista para una”, dice el Sr. Heath-Rawlings.
La idea de que la confianza entre Estados Unidos y Canadá se ha roto es una que ha sido abrazada por el nuevo primer ministro del país, Mark Carney, mientras se avecinan unas elecciones generales.
“La antigua relación que teníamos con Estados Unidos basada en la integración cada vez más profunda de nuestras economías y una estrecha cooperación en seguridad y militar ha terminado”, dijo recientemente. “Rechazo cualquier intento de debilitar a Canadá, de agotarnos, de rompernos para que América pueda poseernos.”
En el siglo XIX, los conflictos territoriales y los enfrentamientos a lo largo de la frontera entre Estados Unidos y Canadá eran más frecuentes. Los estadounidenses hicieron varios intentos fallidos de capturar territorio canadiense durante la Guerra de 1812.
En 1844, algunos estadounidenses exigieron el uso de la fuerza militar si el Reino Unido no aceptaba sus reclamos en el noroeste del Pacífico.
La “disputa del cerdo” de 1859 involucró islas disputadas cerca de Vancouver y el lamentable tiroteo de un cerdo británico que había invadido el jardín de un estadounidense.
Todo eso parecía sacado de los libros de historia polvorientos, donde la Zona Gris era una rareza diplomática, una excepción a una norma pacífica en el mundo moderno de democracias desarrolladas e integradas.
Pero esa calma ahora está rota, y nadie está seguro de a dónde llevarán estas aguas turbulentas a ambos países.
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